Re-visiting how the Browns’ players are doing statistically in their over/under stats

At the start of the season, Bovada released over/under odds for all 32 teams in the NFL, and we looked at the odds that were related to the Cleveland Browns. First, let’s remind everyone what those over/under odds were:

• 12.5 starts for Robert Griffin III
• 675 rushing yards for Isaiah Crowell
• 4.5 combined touchdowns for Isaiah Crowell
• 925 combined receiving+rushing yards for Duke Johnson
• 4.5 combined touchdowns for Duke Johnson
• 800 yards for Gary Barnidge
• 5.5 touchdowns for Gary Barnidge

Assessing the Progress

Quarterback

Here is what I predicted:

[With RGIII], we won’t have a benching situation in Cleveland, so it all comes down to health for him. If you put a gun to my head, I’d take the over. At the very least, he should last longer than last year’s starting quarterback did in the opener, when Josh McCown went into helicopter mode to end the first offensive series of the year.

So much for that. Griffin did last a few more series than McCown, but he exited in the first game. The difference is that Griffin hasn’t been back since. He might return for the December games, but the “under” crowd is the clear winner here.

Running Backs

I took the over on Crowell’s rushing yards (675) and his total rushing/receiving touchdowns (4.5). After 10 games, Crowell is sitting at 551 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns, so he’s definitely on pace to hit the over on yards and is already there when it comes to touchdowns. Crowell had 394 rushing yards (98.5 per game) in his first four outings. In the six games since then, he has 157 (26.2). If that pathetic pace were to continue, he’d finish at 708 yards rushing, which is still the over. Odds are, he’ll have a big game one of these weeks to comfortably get over 675.

I took the under on Johnson’s combined rushing+receiving yards (925) and his total rushing/receiving touchdowns (4.5). Johnson currently has 247 yards rushing and 338 yards receiving, which comes to 585 yards total (58.5 per game). It that average continues, he’ll finish the year with 936 yards total. It’s too close to call right now whether he’ll get the over/under. He only has 1 touchdown on the year. It’s always possible that he has a breakout day (i.e. 2 touchdowns) to make things interesting, but right now he’s on pace for the under in touchdowns.

Tight End

I took the under on Barnidge’s receiving yards (800) and the over on touchdowns (5.5). Through ten games, Barnidge has 434 yards (43.4 per game). That puts him on pace for the under at 694 yards. The surprising aspect to me is that Barnidge doesn’t have a single touchdown all year. Even Seth DeValve got one last week before Barnidge.

Your Predictions

It’s too bad an over/under wasn’t set on WR Terrelle Pryor at the start of the year. He’s currently on pace to finish with 1,000 yards receiving.

When it comes to the Browns’ running backs and tight end categories for the over/under, how do you think they’ll finish?