/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49423469/dbnguys.0.0.png)
To help preview the Cleveland Browns' NFL Draft every year, the staff here at Dawgs By Nature puts together a collection of big boards and mock drafts. This year, we are adding a new feature to the fold: a roundtable discussion covering as many draft-related topics as possible within a short period of time. The participants include myself, Matt Wood, rufio, Josh Finney, Zach Miller, Dan Lalich (notthatnoise), Joe Ginley, and Mike Krupka. I also doubled as the moderator for most of the questions, so the tone of the questions (except for one of them) are coming from my perspective.
Q (Chris): "Let's get things started with probably the most polarizing decision. Should the Browns take a quarterback with one of their first two picks, or are you not sold enough on the likes of Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook?"
--
Matt Wood: "I'm simple when it comes to this, you either take a QB at the top or you weren't comfortable enough to take one later in the first. If you like a QB enough to take him in the first you better not risk another team liking him before you. QB is too important to risk it. Plus I love RG3."
--
Josh Finney: "Absolutely not with 8, and only Lynch with 32.
I have zero confidence that Paxton Lynch makes it to draft pick 32. At the bare minimum, I would expect a team to get back into the first round to take him, if for no other reason than to add that year of potential service time down the road before hitting free agency. If he were to make it to pick 32, and the Browns love him, I'm interested. If the player taken at 8 (or in a subsequent trade down) is a skill player, even better.
The Browns biggest problem, heading into this draft, is that they have two situational slot receivers, a possession guy on the back nine of his career, and a converted QB who has never played the position headlining their wide receiving corps. The presumptive starting running back hasn't proven physically capable of managing a full work load. Who is RG3 going to operate the offense with? WRs take time to develop, and it's not a quick fix, but at some point this team has to invest some picks in the first three rounds on capable offensive weapons.
Connor Cook is a no-go for me in the first two rounds. He's shown impressive numbers throwing the ball down the field, which is a staple of MSU's offense, but I don't see a prospect who is efficient enough inside the 1-15 yard zone. Too frequently, I see a guy who throws to his WRs downfield without even looking at them or placing the ball in the right spot. His personality is a red flag the same way some other QB prospects is; no one has ever had a poor word to say about the guy, but he leaves you with a sense of unease. I hope that his interviews at the combine settled those issues, because he has a nice arm and some experience you like.
I can't see the Browns taking anyone with the level of risk you see in a Bosa, Nkemdiche, or Cook. Different reasons, but there's plenty of elite talent talent with higher floors out there. Lynch at 32 or just wait for Vernon Adams and Deshaun Watson (2017)."
--
Dan Lalich: "I waffle on this, but lean towards not drafting a QB with one of those picks. I don't think guys like Lynch or Cook are good enough to take at eight, and using a second round pick on a guy you don't have a ton of confidence in seems like a wasted opportunity when you have so many other areas your team needs to improve. Like Josh said, the skill players currently on the roster aren't going to cut it, and there will be good weapons on the board at pick 32.
If I had to choose, I would take Cook though. Nothing about Lynch screams NFL quarterback other than his arm strength. I also wouldn't mind throwing a mid round pick at Kevin Hogan, who I think would be at least a decent backup."
--
Chris Pokorny: "I agree with Matt's sentiments. If you are really in love with a quarterback and believe you can flip them into the next greatest commodity in the NFL, then you don't risk passing on him. With two quarterbacks already slotted to go in the first two picks, there are other teams like the 49ers, Jets, and Broncos who should also be considering quarterbacks at some point. Cleveland has no idea if those teams are going to maneuver around them, so if they really loved either Lynch or Cook, I don't think they'd have even risked them slipping to No. 8.
It would also seem contradictory of the Browns to take a so-so quarterback prospect at No. 32, or worse yet, trade up to acquire him, when they could have had a better prospect in Carson Wentz at No. 2. The sense of it all just wouldn't add up for me. I hope that four quarterbacks are taken in the first round, with none of them heading to the Browns, because that would take the decision out of Cleveland's hands. Like Josh said, let's use the picks in the first several rounds to invest in some offensive weapons to build around a quarterback we might take 2-3 years from now. "
--
Dan Lalich: "Here's an interesting upshot of this though. If you don't take a QB this season, at that point you're either all in on RG3 or basically acknowledging that this season isn't going to be super fun. Like I said, I kind of hope they don't draft a QB at this point, but that's going to mean it's more difficult to find reasons to be hopeful next year."
--
Josh Finney: "I think RG3 is a hedge, Dan. He's young and has some residual upside and value. There's a mile of difference between 'We're punting on this season with 37 year old (but capable) Josh McCown' and 'We'll see what we have in RG3, which is a more worthwhile project and offers a chance of success, while re-calibrating our expectations for a 2017 player we're better positioned for with 2 firsts.'
Also! It does seem like there's a lot of smoke to the 'Hue really likes a guy besides one of the first two on the board' rumors. I don't know who it is because they've been linked, quite literally, to every QB in this draft at some point. I do think that the player may exist, though."
--
Matt Wood: "RG3 is gonna ball out man. Y'all have too much faith in Jay Gruden."
--
Zach Miller: "Here's where I'm at with this. In my opinion, while I'm fine with the haul they received back, I would've preferred to stay at #2 and take a QB there. I think that both Wentz and Goff can be franchise QBs. Obviously that isn't happening now, so there's no sense in harping on the past.
I don't think that QB should be in play at #8. I like Lynch somewhat, but no near enough to draft him #8. There's guys that should be there at #8 that can provide immediate help in areas of immediate need (OL and DL come to mind). Cook should not be anywhere near discussions for #8.
#32 for me is where things get a little more interesting. If Lynch somehow makes it here, which I highly doubt, I wouldn't hesitate to take him #32. Depending on the board, Cook, maybe. Trading from 2 tells me they either really aren't sold on Wentz/Goff or are very faithful in RG3. Either way, I'm not sure I feel the same. I think if you like a QB go get him, always loved what Jax did with Bortles. But, if the Browns don't feel that way about these QBs, then address other needs."
--
rufio: "I like RG3 on the field. To me the only questions he has to answer are about throwing his teammates under the bus, throwing his coaches under the bus, and how much he wants to win when the spotlight isn't on him. Games are won Monday-Saturday, and games are won in the offseason. How much does RG3 want it then? Oh yeah, I also question if he can find a way to avoid taking the ABSOLUTE WORST POSSIBLE HIT on every play. We're talking about a guy who let the Browns defense helicopter him when he could have just stepped out of bounds...in a PRESEASON game. With an all-pro and a solid starter leaving at 2 of the top 3 most important line positions he's going to take enough hits that he can't avoid. Will his body hold up? I doubt it. I do expect him to look great when he's healthy, and maybe a 20-25 year old guy actually did mature a little bit and we won't hear about the same crap that we heard about in Washington. I'm betting he never makes it through 16 games but that he looks electric in a few.
As for the draft, this QB class is Goff, project, or nothing in my eyes. I am a huge believer in Goff, mostly because his on-field skills demonstrate his off-field (and outside of practice) work. That's one thing that is often extremely difficult to get a gauge on for evaluators and even harder for people like us: how hard does a guy work? What is he like as a person, what kind of habits does he have? That's why I kept waffling between 'do not touch with a 10,000 yard pole' and 'draft him first overall' with regard to Billy Johnny Manziel: was he 'just a knucklehead' or was he an addict in serious danger? We found that one out the hard way, but his on-field talent was worthy of the top pick in the draft, and I think we started to see that talent coming out on an NFL field right before he lost his marbles for good.
Goff has the footwork and the field-reading skills that I'm willing to bet are the result of thousands of hours of outside-of-practice work. You don't get elite footwork like that just by showing up for your NCAA-limited practice time and going through the motions. You aren't able to read the field like he does and process the kind of information that he can without putting in extra work somewhere. Sure, he doesn't have a Jay Cutler arm, or Ben Roethlisberger size (lack of capitalization due to lack of respect), but he has elite traits. He reminds me of Rodgers and not just because of his college. Every QB needs to get better once they hit the NFL and I'm willing to bet that Goff will.
Wentz has more physical talent and he seems to have the drive, but if he does why isn't his footwork as good? Why did it seem that he ran an offense that was 3-step drops and if the throw wasn't free he had to scramble? To me, he's someone who you're going to have to teach a little more and hope that he improves: I trust that I will see improvement from him less than I trust to see it from Goff. Maybe he works out and maybe he doesn't, but he reminds me of Blake Bortles: a classic 'looks like a quarterback' guy who has talent but may or may not develop the skills he needs. Wentz might be worth the 8th pick, but he's not going to be there and we know that. Everyone else is nothing special to me. I'd think about Lynch at 32, but he won't be there either, and no one else is anyone I'd take before the 4th round as a backup. I really think with the Philly trade we either won't be in position to take a QB or we will have to trade back up from 32 to get someone. Connor Cook seems like an immature douche and personally I don't think he's that good.
I really do think the front office is all-in on RG3. I think they saw an undervalued cast-off who no one else wanted and DePodesta saw a way to out-smart the league. If it works, he'll look like a genius and they'll make a movie about him again. I hope he's right, but I don't think RG3 will survive."
--
Mike Krupka: "I'd be happy with Paxton Lynch with our second pick or with our first pick if we moved back again from 8 . Cook is not really a guy I've studied a lot, but he's a guy that seems to force a lot of throws with varying accuracy and some of the "attitude" type stuff I've read make me wary - pass."
--
Q (Chris): "I've been trying to pencil the first seven picks together in my head. I think we could end up seeing three quarterbacks be taken in the first seven picks, which leaves four other picks to be taken. If teams have heavy defensive needs and the rumors are true that somebody in the Top-10 loves Ronnie Stanley, then what if Laremy Tunsil is available at No. 8 and the Titans or some other team come calling for a trade? I think it's a no-brainer that I'm hanging up the phone and taking Tunsil, who I wouldn't have minded at No. 2 overall."
--
Matt Wood: "You trade down with Tunsil on the board. Should be able to add an extra 1 with his talent."
--
Chris Pokorny: "Imagine if the Titans traded back up to take Tunsil and gave us a first-round pick in 2017. It would seem unfathomable for Tennessee to do that because they'd somewhat be negating their initial trade with the Rams and Cleveland would've gotten a ton more overall value in moving down from No. 2 than the Titans did by moving down from No. 1.
An extra first-round pick is enticing, but I think Cleveland already has enough assets in 2016 and 2017 where they can say, "Tunsil is a sure-bet prospect, let's roll with him here." Tunsil can start at right tackle and then over the long-term take over for Joe Thomas, similar to what's happening with Lane Johnson in Philly."
--
Josh Finney: "I entertained this thought from our perspective with Dallas and Buckner. Would you trade BACK up to #4 with Dallas, if they decided they didn't want the risk of Bosa and wanted Zeke, if it meant the #2 from 2017 and some other late pick?
Basically, Browns would have gained a 1st, 3rd, and change to move back 3 spots and could STILL get Ramsey, Buckner, or Tunsil? I would, in a flash."
--
rufio: "I don't actually like Tunsil that much, Chris. I would really consider trading back again, because I see maybe 5-6 studs in this draft and then a whole bunch of late-first guys. I'd rather only trade back a small amount of spots, and I'd want another high pick.
Goff, Wentz, Bosa, Elliott, Ramsey, and maybe Tunsil are in that elite group for me, followed by Buckner, Treadwell, and Jack as guys who I think could be elite but are missing 1-2 things I'd like to see. But Jack, Buckner, and Tunsil are all guys who physically look incredible but then I'm underwhelmed by their play. I do wish Treadwell's 40 time was better but I still think he will be good. LTs are often considered "safe" picks, but there have been a ton of misses lately at the top of the first round. I'm not sure Tunsil is worth the extra 2nd round pick that I'd want to move back 1-3 spots, or the extra first rounder that I'd want to move back 6+.
I'm seeing Goff, Wentz more or less locked in as 1-2, and then I think it is Bosa, Tunsil, and Ramsey in some order. I think Miles Jack comes off the board before our pick too. I'm seeing a lot of people mocking a trade back to Miami if Zeke is still on the board when we are picking, and I like that move for us. We could pick up a right tackle/successor to the One True God Joe Thomas or Darron Lee or even a wideout or DT. Treadwell plus the picks from two trades back would be a great first round in my opinion. I'd take that over Tunsil."
--
Q (Chris): "Speaking of Joe Thomas, would you want him traded for a second-round pick? What about a late first-round pick? Or are you hell-bent on keeping him like I am?"
--
Josh Finney: "Not interested in trading Joe Thomas. Would rather he retire a Brown and finish his days playing RT."
--
Zach Miller: "I'm pretty hell-bent on keeping JT until retirement, but damn man, if someone offers a late first....I would seriously entertain it. Would really suck, but you'd have to consider it very much, IMO."
--
rufio: "I would keep the One True God Joe Thomas unless they were offering the first overall pick for Goff this year. No way in hell I'd trade him for a 2nd."
--
Q (Matt): "I just put it on DBN, but this FO does a great job of letting the "right" rumors get out. For that reason I don't think they like any QB unless it is reaaaaally late."
--
Josh Finney: "I like how I've seen 'insiders' like JLC claim that the Browns have the leakiest front office in sports. Yet, I've seen them linked to literally every QB and a dozen different skill players in 100% certain terms."
--
Chris Pokorny: "That's the beauty of draft-related leaks, too. Even if all of these insiders feel they have reliable information in to a team's draft plans, there is so much unpredictability in the draft each year. We love mock drafts, but people are lucky if they correctly project five first-round picks in any given year. I think The OBR is the most connected by far, and even they won't know for sure what the heck is going on.
At this point, I can safely say the Browns have been linked to every major prospect & top QB. Props to new FO for keeping everyone guessing.
— Brent Sobleski (@brentsobleski) April 27, 2016
Wishful thinking, I do like the thought of the Browns orchestrating being linked to everybody so they can pique the interest of the right team(s) for more trades if the board isn't shaping up how they want it to be. Although Sashi Brown being very confident that "their guy" will be their at No. 8 has to make me wonder if my April Fools post is going to come true a bit and we have a first-round grade on somebody who others have a much lower grade on. "
--
rufio: "I don't doubt that we have different ideas of value vs. the rest of the league. That's what the moneyball approach is all about: shedding conventional thinking and looking at the game/draft/roster in a new way. That means assigning different (more appropriate) values to things than other teams. I would not be shocked to see us trade out of the first entirely or pick someone somewhat 'surprising.'
But if we are really trying to eek out value from the draft, we won't go drafting 3rd round graded guys in the first. Even if you have a first round grade on that guy, his value is determined by what everyone else thinks his value is. Bidding against yourself is a bad way to find value."
--
Chris Pokorny: "Fair enough, rufio. You touched on Treadwell a bit earlier, and over at DBN, we've got a question from Robo Dawg."
--
Q (DBN Community): "What is the relationship of speed and draft position for the WR position to optimize value? Is there a threshold speed where a WR to be 'first round' talent and a stand-alone outside receiver? At what point do you become a 'possession receiver' and lose value? Is the 40 the appropriate measure for this speed? Otherwise known as the 'Treadwell valuation question'"
--
Chris Pokorny: "What do you guys think? I can't speak on any real data, but my gut instinct always tells me to be very careful when looking at 40 times. As fast as Travis Benjamin was, look how long it took him to mature into a decent receiver, and he never would've had that opportunity last year had Cleveland's depth not been so bad in the first place. Speed isn't a negative, of course, but if I see a highly-rated prospect with average speed, it tells me they are rated that high because their game in general is good. When I see the fast 40-times, I like to look deeper and wonder if their success and hype is driven by speed but perhaps the rest of their intangibles won't cut it at the NFL level?"
--
Matt Wood: "I think 40 times are crazy overrated. Always have."
--
rufio: "I don't think 40 times for WRs are a big deal. Would it be nice if Treadwell ran in the 4.3s? Hell yeah. And I don't think you get to be the kind of top-3 pick that Calvin Johnson was without that kind of speed for whatever reason. But DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Keenan Allen, Wes Welker, Jarvis Landry, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and Kelvin Benjamin were all guys who ran in the 4.5s or slower at some point. Many of those guys ran 4.6s, and those are just successful WRs off of the top of my head. Some people had Josh Gordon at 4.52 and we've seen him run away from every DB in the NFL. The tradition of NFL WRs and slow 40 times dates back to at least Jerry Rice.
In my opinion, the film is much more important, as is the idea of how a guy wins. If he's relying on pure speed a la TY Hilton or Will Fuller, yes, he'd better be in the 4.4s at least. But guys like Treadwell and Michael Thomas are winning with short-area moves and by catching the ball away from their body. Since we have a decent list of guys who have still won like that in the NFL (and a huge list of speedsters who were still terrible in the NFL after being terrible in college), I'm not concerned. Take a step back and just ask "is this guy a dominant football player?" I think Treadwell is."
--
Zach Miller: "Only 40's that aren't overrated are King Cobras.
But, for real, I do think they have some value, just not near as much as media/fans assign them. If you're too slow and can't create separation, then there's an issue. But, if you've got enough pace, coupled with the rest of your skillset to get open, then that is what actually matters.
I think back to guys like Darrius Heyward-Bey that were over-drafted because of their 40 times. Putting too much faith in them is a good way to get 40-blind and only see that, while not gauging the entirety of someone's game.
I like Treadwell a lot, but I do think guys like Josh Doctson & Corey Coleman aren't as far back as once thought. I really like Doctson, and have him not far behind Treadwell on my board."
Must Reads
--
Dan Lalich: "From an analytic point of view 40 time is basically worthless for WRs. Here's a chart that summarizes how predictive various combine measurements are for NFL success. Also, take a look at the WR row of that chart in general. The combine drills have basically no predictive value for the position. As far as why that might be, I don't know, but it's interesting."
--
Joe Ginley: "The 40 times definitely have some value- there's a baseline speed a wideout should have. At the same time, as my dad always says, it doesn't matter how fast you can run if you don't know where you're going. I look more at class year than 40 times. Wide receivers who come out as juniors typically have more success than seniors."
--
Josh Finney: "I saw an EXCELLENT breakdown of WRs in this draft from the 2016 seasons, that measured how often WRs were targeted, type of routes, catch rate, and a thousand other things. Can't find it in my bookmarks anywhere and it's making me insane. Also,
/reevaluates how much age should actually matter."
--
Matt Wood: "Josh Gordon was 22 when he went for 1600. I'm gonna go cry now."
--
(Editor's note: Josh's response happened about six hours later, but I moved it to the relevant section)
Josh Finney: "Hah! I found it!! Was reading this, where (here ya go, Matt) the writer waxes about how great LaQuon is. Krupka just retweeted it. He came back to reference this study, which is what I was looking for earlier.
--
Matt Wood: "Awesome article Josh and it backs up my thinking. Dude is the best WR in the draft. We try too hard to find his flaws. I mean the guy played less than a year after his leg snapped."
--
Q (DBN Community): "Who is one player you're head-over-heels for in the mid to late rounds?"
--
Matt Wood: "I don't know how late, but Joshua Perry is going to be a really good pro. Great leader, smart and is a great kid. Plus he can play ball. I really like him."
--
Zach Miller: "This one is easy for me, Chris. Miles Killebrew - S, Southern Utah. Absolutely love that kid."
--
Josh Finney: "Charone Peake. Size speed freak. I'm tired of not having a Clemson wideout."
--
Joe Ginley: "Give me Mike Thomas out of Southern Miss. The kid has great hands and looks like Odell on tape. Fun to watch."
--
Zach Miller: "While we're on the subject of mid-round WR's. I really really like Keyarris Garrett from Tulsa, 6'3" 220 lbs, decent speed. Has had some injuries, and has small ass hands with some dropsies issues, however kid can play. If he's around in maybe the 4th, for sure would like to have him."
--
Josh Finney: "(quoting Zach's second-to-last sentence) Dude, Zach, I have this super fine shawty you gotta meet. She's 4'9 145 and has a hairlip, but man, she's got personality. Also, you just described Will Fuller."
--
rufio: "My favorite under the radar guy is Casey Martin out of Southern Miss. Dude has moves."
--
Q (Dan): "Who is the one player you do not want the Browns to draft eighth overall? To make it more interesting, eliminate QBs from the equation. For me, it's Tunsil."
--
Josh Finney: "Vernon Hargreaves or Jack Conklin."
--
Zach Miller: "I'm thinking Fuller may end up in my category of wanting to shy away from."
--
Josh Finney: "If I'm playing FKM, Fuller is the kill. Just re-sign Travis Benjamin and don't be a bunch of spazzes if you're going to blow a pick on Fuller."
--
Q (Chris): "A few more questions the DBN Community wanted us to touch on. First, is there a free safety prospect projected to go in the late-first or later you guys think would be a good pick up? Also, what position do you think we'll get a late round starter at?"
Must Reads
Must Reads
--
Chris Pokorny: "Unless we get Jalen Ramsey, I'm not placing a premium on drafting a safety in the first two rounds. It has nothing to do with the talent and more to do with other holes I prefer the team addresses. I'm also willing to give Ibraheim Campbell a shot at a starting role, as I was intrigued by his performance in a very limited sample last year. Vonn Bell and Karl Joseph are the names who I think would be available late in the first round, but the investment in the position would just leave me feeling a little empty on draft day.
Regarding a late-round starter, we're looking really weak at right tackle right now, but I could see the
team aiming for that position in the fourth- or fifth-round."
--
Dan Lalich: "I think center is another position to keep your eye on for a late round starter."
--
rufio: "I like Vonn Bell as a late-first pick for us, but I'm a homer. Karl Joseph and Keanu Neal seem decent, too. I'm not sold on Campbell as a starter, he looked hesitant and a step behind in limited action last year. It could have been coaching, it could have been the fact that he was a rookie, but nothing really pops off of the screen when I watch him. I'm more ok with him starting than Cam Erving at center, so that's something. But I am not of the mindset that we should rearrange our draft board because of the promise he showed."
--
Q (Zach): "What do you guys view as the deepest positional group in this year's draft?"
--
Matt Wood: "Defensive tackle I think is the deepest. Ironically enough it just happens to be the position that we used a first rounder on last year. I don't understand the want for Billings. I like him sure, but I don't see how he makes us a better football team."
--
rufio: "I think defensive tackle is perhaps the deepest positional group in this draft. I like a lot of the guys who are rated highly, and while they aren't necessarily flashy, I think there are a lot of solid NFL players at DT (DE for us)."
--
Q (Chris): "On the topic of deep positions, a few of you said defensive line. We had a question on DBN about which of the players you see as good fits for what the Browns need: 'Many people in DBN would like to draft some defensive linemen (Billings, Lawson, Bosa, Buckner, Floyd, Kaufusi). How do these players 'fit' with the current linemen on the roster?'"
--
rufio: "On the defensive line, Horton has traditionally used big, strong, 2-gapping linemen. When DL in that system have been the most successful I think of guys like Casey Hampton and Brett Kiesel who were big, strong dudes who could eat up space and then mostly were power rushers. I don't think Horton is looking for much quickness (3-tech tackles) but I think he would be able to find a way to use that kind of guy if he had him, especially in nickel and dime packages.
Right now, I see our D line as Danny Shelton at NT and then a whole bunch of guys who may or may not be in our future plans. Shelton is exactly the kind of space-eating NT who can become a key cog in our line. I wouldn't necessarily be afraid of other guys who are two-gappers like Billings or either of the Bama DL. We have the room to play a 330lb guy at DE alongside Shelton if we need, and to shift him inside when we are in nickel but not in a passing situation (say, 2nd and 6 when the other team goes to 3-4 WR). I'd say we want our NT to be as enormous as possible, with our DEs at around 300lbs, maybe one at 285-290. Buckner would be perfect at DE.
As for guys like Bosa, and Shaq Laswon, they are probably OLBs for us in base. Anyone under 285 who is an edge rusher probably has to stand up at least as a ruse (they may function exactly like a 4-3 DE though). When we go to nickel or dime packages, those guys will put their hands on the ground and play DE. In my opinion this is the type of guy we need the most on the team right now as we lack a better threat than Kruger off the edge."
--
Q (Chris): "Last year, the Browns took a 7th-round flier on Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. After red-shirting him for his entire rookie season, the team waived him. Jaylon Smith is viewed with an entirely different value at the linebacker position, but he'd similarly have to be red-shirtted for a year and then you hope he can make it back. How soon would you want the Browns to use a pick on Smith if he were still on the board, if at all?"
--
Matt Wood: "I would use a 3rd round pick on Smith. Probably a lot earlier than most, but what the hell. It's a 3rd round pick for a guy 5 months ago was considered a top 3 lock. Sure there is downside, but I doubt you are going to find a 3rd round guy that has his ceiling."
--
Joe Ginley: "I wouldn't use anything higher than a 5th rounder on Smith. Especially after the Browns just randomly dumped Ifo. If I'm another team, I'm not using a pick. The only reason I'd take him is because the Browns have 12 picks. Using one on a long range project is OK if you have that many picks. However, using a pick on a project always makes me nervous."
--
Zach Miller: "Yeah, I think I'd probably go 3rd or 4th. We're pretty flush with picks, so using a mid flier isn't a bad option. Honestly, was really disappointed to see Ifo go."
--
Chris Pokorny: "Regarding Jaylon Smith, unless he's still there in the 6th round, I'm passing. The stories of players coming back are far and few between, and even though we have 12 draft picks, we are surely going to merge a few of those to either gain a higher pick or move up in a certain round, where we'll take a player who could very well start in 2016 given the state of our roster. The sooner we have these guys get their feet wet, the better, rather than hoping a guy pans out after he recovers from injury."
--
rufio: "I'd pick Smith late, in the 6th or 7th round. I think his knee is bad--like 'might already need to retire' bad. But the chance of him healing is better than the chance of most 6th-7th round picks panning out."
--
Dan Lalich: "We haven't had one of those seventh round injury fliers pan out yet, but I still think it's a good risk/reward move. I'd take him at the end if he's still there."
--
Q (Chris): "In your DBN Mock (or if you would have participated), you listed one scenario of the Browns' picks at No. 8 and No. 32. Briefly talk about that scenario and one or two other ways you could see the first round (including No. 32) pan out for the Browns (i.e. scenario A, scenario B, and scenario C)?"
--
Matt Wood: "I will be shocked if the Browns draft at 8. I think someone comes up for Zeke or a Tackle. I listed Tunsil at 8 with the mentality that they wouldn't do the picking. If I had to guess I think the goal is to get into the teens and take their top WR."
--
Josh Finney: "[Expletive], I hate agreeing with Wood.
I'd say they want Buckner. If he's not there and Zeke is available, I'd be shocked if they didn't trade down a few spots and grab a WR or Ryan Kelly.
They've shown no interest in Ramsey, and Bosa is too risky. They need playmakers, and they know it, on either side of the ball. Lawson makes sense, but it's probably easier to see what they have in the glut of OLBs on the roster before adding to the pile. (Same with CB, to be honest)
If I handicapped it, I'd put it 30% on Buckner, 40% on a trade down, and 30% on the field.
32 depends wholeheartedly on 8. If they get a WR higher, I'll be surprised if they don't go QB or DL at 32. I hate Connor Cook and his punchable face, so I expect either him or Cardale or be gracing my Sunday's."
--
Matt Wood: "You love it Josh!"
--
Josh Finney: "I literally double-take my original take and say, 'Do I really agree here? Am I sure?'"
--
Zach Miller: "I think Josh's handicapping is pretty darn close. For #8, I'd probably go 50% trade down, 20% Buckner, 20% best OL, and 10% field. I could easily see a trade down to like 11-14 or so, taking Conklin and then taking WR/QB 32. Regardless of a trade down or stay at 8, what do y'all think the likelihood we trade back into the first? Personally I don't think it's very high, but could see it as a possibility given their relatively strong capital."
--
rufio: "Depends on where is there at 8, but I'd like Treadwell. If he's gone, Rankins. If he's gone, Darron Lee (yes, I know it's a reach). If any of Ramsey/Zeke/Bosa/Buckner are somehow left, give me those guys."
--
Josh Finney: "I think if Cook is the guy, there's a really strong chance. Otherwise, I imagine there's a lot of options they'll like at 32, and they'll want to bring in a lot of guys from this draft and play them ASAP."
--
Matt Wood: "Cook is pretty much the last QB I want. Dude does some stupid ass things with the football."
--
Joe Ginley: "I highly expect the Browns to trade down. I would be somewhat shocked if the Browns stayed at 8, especially with the Titans' interest in Tunsil and the Dolphins' interest in Zeke. If the Browns trade down, I would expect them to draft Treadwell, or Ronnie Staley if Treadwell is off the board.
That said, if the Browns stay put, I really like Buckner, and I think the Browns do, too. He fits well with the team's 3-4 scheme as your hand-in-the-dirt DE, especially with his monstrous size.
As Wood and Josh said, 32 depends on 8. If you grab a WR at 8, DL/OLB appears likely. If you snag Buckner, look for a WR. I can't see the Browns taking Cook as high as 32."
--
rufio: "In my mock I have Goff and Wentz going 1-2, which is no surprise. The Chargers seem to need a lot of things, so I could see them going any number of ways and I kind of just picked one of the elite players out of a hat. After them I have Dallas making a flashy pick who will also help them make one last push with Romo, and the Jags drafting someone to block for Bortles. In my 'of course this is going to happen' nightmare scenario, the Ravens get Bosa. The 49ers realize that their DC is terrible and grab a defender.
I have us taking Treadwell there, because analytics show that WR 40 times are overrated and he's damn good. I would not be surprised at all to see us move back. Maybe we could still move back and get Treadwell. But I just see a team with no big WRs, a coach who likes to use big guys outside, and a QB that we are going to need to support. All those things make Treadwell my pick there.
At 32, I have us going all-in on the 'big WRs outside' strategy. I could see us moving up to get a QB later in the first, but maybe the front office is actually believing in RG3 so we try to support him, with many of the best OL off the board. I wouldn't be surprised to see Derrick Henry here, if he doesn't go before we pick (I think he will but couldn't find the spot for him)."
--
Chris Pokorny: "In my mock, I had the Browns landing Tunsil and Thomas (OSU). I can't overstate how perfect of a scenario that would be -- talk about great offensive value. As far as alternative scenarios, I would be pretty happy with any of the top prospects at No. 8, as long as it is not a quarterback or a defensive back named Jalen Ramsey. I wouldn't mind an offensive tackle, but it'd be nice to trade down if that tackle isn't Tunsil."
-------------------------------------
Thanks to everybody who participated and took the time to read!