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As we head into the regular season, Bovada released over/under player odds for all 32 teams in the NFL. We, of course, zoned in specifically on the Browns-related odds, so let’s take a quick look at them:
Quarterback
For Robert Griffin III, his total starts in the 2016 regular season has been set at 12.5 games. Do you think he’ll start 12 or fewer games, or 13 or more games? Ugh, that’s a tough question to answer, given Cleveland’s quarterback history. The optimist in me would love to think that Griffin will have a resurrection under Hue Jackson. I mean, Jackson brought Griffin in because he thinks there’s a shot he can still be a franchise quarterback; otherwise, what’s the point?
Griffin started 15 games as a rookie in 2012, 13 games in 2013, and 7 games in 2014. The latter number, along with all of 2015 (where he didn’t play at all), was partially because he was benched in favor of Kirk Cousins. We won’t have a benching situation in Cleveland, so it all comes down to health for him.
If you put a gun to my head, I’d take the over. At the very least, he should last longer than last year’s starting quarterback did in the opener, when Josh McCown went into helicopter mode to end the first offensive series of the year.
Running Back
We’ve got four player odds to look at here.
Isaiah Crowell’s over/under on rushing yards is 675. His over/under on total rushing/receiving touchdowns is 4.5. This is an easy one for me: I’d take the over on both of them. Last year, the Browns’ rushing attack was pretty pitiful, yet Crowell still managed to run for 706 yards and had 5 combined touchdowns on the season. Cleveland has some better power run blocking this year with Cameron Erving and Austin Pasztor, and he’ll be the team’s primary goal line back. The success of the running game was evident in the preseason, and I expect it to continue in the regular season with Crowell being the primary work horse.
Duke Johnson’s over/under is for combined rushing+receiving yards, which is set at 925. His rushing/receiving touchdown total is also set at 4.5. Last year, Johnson had 913 total yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s possible that he matches his production from a year ago, but I think it’s a lot more risky than the sure-bet of Crowell. If I had to bet, I’d take the under on both accounts for Johnson.
Tight End
The over/under for receiving yards on Gary Barnidge is set at 800 yards, and the over/under on touchdowns is set at 5.5. Last year, Barnidge broke out with 1,043 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. When you look at those odds, your first instinct might be to immediately take the over. Tight ends traditionally don’t have a lot of receiving yards in Hue Jackson’s offense, though. For example -- did you know that Tyler Eifert only had 615 yards with the Bengals last year? The reason he made a ton of noise was because he had 13 touchdowns. I’d take the under on yardage for Barnidge, but the over on touchdowns.
What Are Your Predictions?
Let us know in the comments what your predictions would be. Would you take the over or under on the following?
- 12.5 starts for Robert Griffin III
- 675 rushing yards for Isaiah Crowell
- 4.5 combined touchdowns for Isaiah Crowell
- 925 combined receiving+rushing yards for Duke Johnson
- 4.5 combined touchdowns for Duke Johnson
- 800 yards for Gary Barnidge
- 5.5 touchdowns for Gary Barnidge