This week, the Cleveland Browns take on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12 of the NFL regular season. Our position-by-position evaluation and game prediction are below.
Position-by-Position Evaluation
Quarterback
- Andy Dalton's best game of the season was against Cleveland earlier this year, when he completed 25-of-30 passes for 286 yards and 4 touchdowns. After a rough two-week stretch, though, he has thrown 7 touchdowns to 0 interceptions in his pas four games. He's only averaging 187 yards passing over his past 5 games, though, so the passing attack and offense in general for the Bengals remains suspect.
- After a decent three-week stretch, DeShone Kizer struggled in committing four turnovers against the Jaguars last week. The good thing is that he has a verbal commitment from Hue Jackson that he’ll remain the starter the rest of the year, so hopefully that means he can feel good about not being tentative when need be.
Running Back
- The Bengals have the worst productivity on the ground in the NFL. With the injury a few weeks back to Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati is down to a two-man system. Rookie Joe Mixon still sees the bulk of the work, but he's averaging just 2.9 YPC on the season. Giovani Bernard hasn't had more than 10 yards rushing in a game since Week 4 against the Browns, when he ran for just 12 yards.
- Bernard burned the Browns for a 61-yard screen pass for a touchdown in Week 4, but in his past 5 games, he has just 8 catches for 40 yards.
- After having taken a few steps forward, the Browns had no room to run last week vs. Jacksonville, when Isaiah Crowell had 11 carries for 18 yards. The Bengals are more susceptible to the run, but their 27th-ranked rush defense is more indicative of how often their defense is forced on the field due to poor execution on offense.
- Duke Johnson is still the Browns' leading receiver with 46 catches for 414 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Wide Receiver / Tight End
- The Bengals are led by A.J. Green at receiver, who is again on pace for a 1,000+ yard, 10-touchdown season. After him, they really only utilize one receiver in Brandon LaFell, who has 34 grabs for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns on the year.
- The player who burned the Browns the last time these teams met was tight end Tyler Kroft, who had 6 catches for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns. On the season, he has 28 catches for 303 yards and 4 scores. Tight ends have remained a sore spot for Cleveland, who have given up touchdowns to Eric Ebron and Marcedes Lewis in the past two weeks.
- Corey Coleman came back with a better-than-expected performance last week, when you consider the Jaguars’ top-ranked secondary. It won’t get much easier this week against the 6th-ranked Bengals pass defense, but they do have some shuffling going on back there.
- I’m over Ricardo Louis already and am just waiting out this last week without Josh Gordon. Rashard Higgins is unlikely to be a part of the club’s future either. Sammie Coates won’t play, so the distribution after Coleman will be split between Louis, Higgins, and Kenny Britt.
- Will we see a game in which the Browns’ tight ends are a legitimate focal point of the offense? It’s been ten weeks already...
Offensive Line
- The Bengals’ starting offensive line features LT Cedric Ogbuehi, LG Clint Boling, C Russell Bodine, RG Trey Hopkins, and RT Andre Smith. The run blocking for Cincinnati is abysmal. That don’t even have those “fluke” games where they open up big holes on a couple of plays. Their pass blocking isn’t anything to write home about, but it has at least somewhat stabilized over the second half of the season.
- Even without Joe Thomas, I’d still take this Browns’ offensive line over the Bengals’ line, both on the ground and in pass protection. I thought Spencer Drango struggled for the first time last week, especially late in the game against Jacksonville. Hopefully Thomas was able to give him some pointers during the week on what went wrong.
Defensive Line
- The Bengals run a 4-3 defense featuring DE Carlos Dunlap, NT Andrew Billings, DT Geno Atkins, and DE Michael Johnson. It's the same-old story for the Bengals up front -- Atkins is a stud, with PFF giving him the 3rd-best grade (91.5) among interior linemen this season. Atkins has 6 sacks on the season.
- Dunlap only has 4 sacks on the year, but had 2 of them last week. Rookie Carl Lawson remains a good rotational pass-rusher, with 5.5 sacks on the year. Lawson was even able to get over on Taylor Lewan last week:
Carl Lawson with the game on the line part 1: taking Taylor Lewan for a ride into Mariota's lap pic.twitter.com/wwyoAZjdXo
— Jon Ledyard (@LedyardNFLDraft) November 13, 2017
- I’ll be curious to see just how much the Browns miss Emmanuel Ogbah this week. In his second year, he wasn’t really “flashy” to the point where casual fans would notice him, but he was very good against the run and had picked up the pass rush/pass deflection productivity. Carl Nassib and Nate Orchard will see an uptick in responsibilities, and Tyrone Holmes could factor in again.
- The idea is that the Browns will try to use their sheer bulk from Danny Shelton, Trevon Coley, and Larry Ogunjobi to try to overpower the Bengals’ interior linemen. The Bengals get the edge here because of Atkins’ top-tier play and the pass rush of Lawson and Dunlap. Myles Garrett is getting the most pass rush on the team, but hasn’t quite dominated a contest.
Linebacker
- The Bengals' starting linebackers are Nick Vigil, Kevin Minter, and Vontaze Burfict. Minter will return after missing the past four games to injury. Vigil leads the team in tackles by a large margin. The team will be without Vincent Rey, their third-leading tackler. Burfict is a character who is either delivering cheap shots or worried about the officials provoking him.
Vontaze Burfict with a big hug for Brock Osweiler after a game sealing incompletion pic.twitter.com/bDRs4kF4lk
— Barstool Sports (@barstooltweetss) November 20, 2017
- When Tyler Kroft had his two touchdowns in Week 4 against the Browns, that action came largely against the Browns’ linebackers. Per PFF, Joe Schobert is allowing a 133.4 QB rating when targeted this year. James Burgess has looked promising in coverage and might be a sneaky option to put on Kroft. Christian Kirksey’s pass rush has been a bigger part of his game the past two weeks, with effectiveness. But Dalton historically gets rid of the ball very quickly against the Browns.
Secondary
- The Bengals’ cornerbacks feature Dre Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones, and Darqueze Dennard. Jones is returning from a concussion, but the concern for Cincinnati is whether Dennard will be able to play as he deals with a knee injury.
- Cincinnati’s safeties include FS George Iloka and SS Shawn Williams, but Williams is out this week with a knee injury. Either Josh Shaw or Clayton Fejedelem will fill in for Williams. If both Dennard and Williams are out, Cleveland can only hope there are some communication issues they can exploit in a usually solid Bengals secondary.
- Jason McCourty is expected to shadow A.J. Green. McCourty passed the test of defending Green once this season, but it’s tough to contain Green for such a long time, especially with minimal pass rush.
- Even though I complain about the linebackers against tight ends, Derrick Kindred was in coverage on both touchdowns allowed to tight ends the past two weeks. I wish I could comment about Jabrill Peppers in those situations, but he’s just out of the picture still with his assigned role.
Special Teams
- Randy Bullock is the Bengals' kicker. I thought Zane Gonzalez had few attempts, but Bullock has even fewer attempts, connecting on 8-of-10 field goals. Bullock has missed an extra point in each of his past two games.
- Kevin Huber is the Bengals' punter. He averages 47.7 yards per punt and a 40.6 net average, with Britton Colquitt edging him out in both categories.
- WR Alex Erickson handles kickoffs for the Bengals, averaging 22.3 yards per return. On punt returns, Erickson is not shy about attempting returns, but averages just 7.5 yards a pop. SS Jabrill Peppers struggled big time in the windy conditions last week on punt returns, including a muff that the Jaguars recovered. RB Matthew Dayes has had two long kick returns since taking over, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he maintained that responsibility moving forward.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN.
Chris Pokorny: “I believe the Browns were in high spirits with the return of Josh Gordon to practice this week, but we’re still a week out from him being on the field. The Bengals play good defense, and although they can’t run the ball, Andy Dalton’s style of quick passes and yards after the catch will burn the Browns, just like the last time these two teams met.” Bengals 21, Browns 13.
Matt Wood: “In the week 1 BTRJG (before the return of Josh Gordon), the Bengals are going to move the football a bit. The Browns without Ogbah and Collins will be abused by the TE again and Mixon will have a good day. Good news is that they slow down AJ Green but it doesn't really matter much. Hue will be all smiles before and after as he is already dreaming of coaching the Bengals after this season while the Browns drop to 0-11.” Bengals 27, Browns 13.
Mike Hoag: “I really don't think the Browns are going to go winless, and this is another game that could potentially be their first win of the season. The Browns' defense is missing another key player after Emmanuel Ogbah was placed on IR, so maybe it won't be this week. But if it is, DeShone Kizer will have to make amends for last week's meltdown. I think he does and will finish with three total touchdowns, while the Browns defense will punish an over-confident Andy Dalton and Bengals offense.” Browns 24, Bengals 23.
Andrea Hangst: “The good news for Sunday's game is that the Cincinnati Bengals are just as inept at scoring points as the Cleveland Browns are this year. The bad news, though, is that the Bengals' defense is a top-10 unit in scoring, while the Browns rank 28th, despite besting the Bengals in yards allowed. However, that top-10 scoring defense has given up a lot of points to their opponents since the bye week, providing an opening for the Browns, particularly if the run game can get going behind Isaiah Crowell and short passes focus on Duke Johnson as their primary target. Still, it's hard to trust Hue Jackson to plan and coach a complete, cohesive and coherent game. At least he's intimately familiar with the Bengals; however, that works both to his advantage and disadvantage as the Bengals' coaching staff also know his tendencies. This could—and should—be close, and a Browns win would not surprise. Yet, given this season, trust in the process is beginning to wane.” Bengals 17, Browns 16.
Joshua Finney: “Good front 7? Check.
Team that can survive with a pass game? Sorta check.
Missing best run defender and best linebacker? Check.
Won’t be as bad as last time, but the Bengals d is strong enough to keep the Browns reckless offense under wraps, unless Hue manages to effect a gameplan I haven’t seen yet.” Bengals 27, Browns 13.
notthatnoise: “Both of these teams struggle to score, and that trend will continue despite injuries to key players on the Browns defense. This will be a sloppy game between two bad teams, but a deep ball to Corey Coleman proves to be the difference in an otherwise forgettable game.” Browns 11, Bengals 5.
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
Poll
Who do you think will win, Browns or Bengals? Pick the one closest to your prediction.
This poll is closed
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11%
Browns by 7+
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27%
Browns by 3
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11%
Bengals by 3
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49%
Bengals by 7+