Bill Barnwell projects Browns’ Vegas win total to be set at 4.5

1 win in 2016.
0 wins in 2017.

If Vegas set the Cleveland Browns’ win total at 4.5 for 2018 (Under -130, Over +110), would you take the over or the under?

Over at ESPN, Bill Barnwell has taken his knowledge of historical gambling lines, plus what to expect during the offseason, to predict what the Vegas win totals will be set at for all 32 teams in the NFL. The Browns have the lowest total, which is projected at 4.5, followed by the Jets (5), Colts (5.5), and Giants (6). The Patriots (12) have the highest number.

Here is what Barnwell said about the Browns specifically:

The Browns’ total for 2017 was 4.5 wins, and you know how that one went. Why would they go up again at 4.5 wins for 2018, then? Sheer regression toward the mean. Most teams as bad as the Browns -- although clearly not all -- bounce back some after seasons as bad as the one we saw from Cleveland in 2017. The Browns will almost surely make an upgrade at quarterback this offseason, including the possibility of acquiring a veteran and drafting a passer with the first overall pick. I suspect this one would still probably require some juice on the under.

If you had to place a bet now, are you taking the over or the under on 4.5 wins in 2018?