FanPost

A New Hope

Well, 2018 is completed. I have to say that although the Browns have lost five conference finals in my life I cannot remember ever watching a Super Bowl with the objective thought that the Browns would have won. That is until this year. Watching the two teams tear up the middle of the field I was bored, but encouraged for our future. On the Sunday we could have beaten both teams.


I thought that I would take a quick look at the AFC North prior to the franchise tags, cap cuts, free agent signings and draft.


Pending noteworthy free agents:


Balt: Suggs, J. Brown, Mosley, Urban, RG3, M. Williams, Montgomery

Pit: Bell, Foster, Alualua, Chickillo, Sensabaugh, Heyward-Bay, Rogers

Cin: Eifert, M. Johnson, P. Brown, Rey, Ogbuehi, Dennard, Fisher, A. Smith, Uzomah

Clev: T.Taylor, Perriman, G. Robinson


Draft Choices (includes estimated compensatory picks):


Balt: 6 (1,3,3,4,5,6)

Pit: 7 (1,2,3,4,6,6,7)

Cin: 11 (1,2,3,4,5,6,6,6,6,6,7)

Clev: 10 (1,2,3,3,4,5,5,5,6,7)


Estimated Johnson Trade Chart Value of draft choices:


Balt: 1135.2

Pit: 1492.8

Cin: 2113.8

Clev: 1822.5


Estimated Meers Trade Chart Value of draft choices:


Balt: 609

Pit: 700.4

Cin: 946.3

Clev: 935.7


Estimated Cap cost of draft choices (from OTC):


Balt: $6M

Pit: $6.3M

Cin: $9.7M

Clev: $8.4M


Available projected cap (w/ 51 players):


Balt: $24.3M

Pit: $19.3M

Cin: $50.6M

Clev: $80M


Available Net Cap after signing draft choices:


Balt: $18.3M

Pit: $13M

Cin: $40.9M

Clev: $71.6M


Note #1: Baltimore can realize a net cap savings of about $10.5M by trading or cutting Flacco (post 6/1).


Note #2: Pittsburgh can realize a net cap savings of about $8M by trading or cutting A. Brown (post 6/1).


In evaluation of draft choice value I prefer the Meers trade chart. It remains fairly apparent that most trades are based on the Johnson trade chart which has a much higher value for early draft choices. By either measure both the Bengals and the Browns are in a superior position to the Ravens and Steelers in adding young talent through the draft in 2019.


I haven’t tried to guess what the teams will try to do with; (a) contract extensions to keep players before their contract season, (b) cap casualty cuts, (c ) franchise or transition tags or (d) free agent signings. It does appear obvious that the other three teams all stand to lose better and more valuable players to free agency than will the Browns. This will either leave them with vacancies to fill by extensions, free agent signings or draft choices. This will reduce the assets available to improve the talent pool either with cap spending and/or draft choices.


None of the teams are in a desperate cap situation and the anticipated removal of Flacco from the Ravens and Brown from the Steelers will provide a fair amount of cap flexibility. For the Steelers this is not really good news as building a team requires keeping talent rather then looking to replace good players. The Browns do have far and away the most cap space but, will be looking at some very costly extensions over the next three seasons and need to be planning for that. I suspect that they will need to have another $30M to $40M in carry forward cap space for 2020.


It appears obvious that for the team trying to build further talent, depth and competition the Browns have the best likelihood for a stronger roster. Since they are already a very young team there should also be an unmeasurable increase to team quality due to the added experience of the 2018 season.


Losing Tyrod Taylor will have zero impact in 2019. Robinson and Perriman should be signed to extensions as there isn’t likely any large FA contracts that will be available to former busts who’ve only shown a single half season of success. They would be making a mistake on par with Pryor’s if they go to free agency. Keeping those three and the RFAs (Higgins) and ERFAs (Coley) that Dorsey prefers means that unlike our competitors we will enter Free Agency with essentially our complete 2018 roster. Free agency and the draft will become entirely additions to the pool of players.


I’ve seen a lot of discussion about cutting Collins. I think that Dorsey will keep him for 2019. Building a team requires adding talent and Collins is a proven NFL linebacker. His dead money hit will be less in 2020 so this will effectively be a contract year for him and so we should see a greater urgency in his performance. We don’t need the cap space or funding in 2019 and our linebacker room is very short on depth. Cutting Vallejo the other day also seems like a sign that Collins will remain. By the way wasn’t it rewarding to see that six teams wanted to make a waiver claim on a deep depth player that we cut?


Regarding free agency I think that there is a good likelihood that Taylor will sign with some team at a level that would qualify for a 2020 3rd round compensatory pick. With that in mind I think Dorsey will limit himself to cap casualty players signing one year prove it deals. With most of our roster returning and ten draft choices he will value adding some experience to selective positions to help grow the new and young players.


My surprise prediction is that Dorsey will pick up Bortles after the Jags cut him. Either Dorsey or Depodesta (with his baseball background) seem to value the opportunity of giving a new chance to post-hype young players like Robinson and Perriman. Bortles is young, has experience as a starter, is physically gifted and could be a useful fill in should Baker be injured. Further with all of his gifts a backup role provides him a chance to rehabilitate his game to get another chance in a couple of years. For the Browns he becomes a potential trade chip in 2020 or 2021.


Reading through many mock drafts (seems very early for that) I’m encouraged to see that the pundits have us variously drafting DTs, Edge, LBs, CBs and WRs. It is nice to have a roster that appears to have no single glaring weakness. Although each of those positions do require more talent I wouldn’t be despondent with any of the choices at #17. I could even see us moving down for some 2020 draft choices.


I was going to do a separate post on our WR room but, there have been at least two recent posts that do a better job of summarizing why our WR position isn’t really a top priority. I will admit that it appears obvious from review of a list of the current top WRs in the league that the odds favor a team that looks for top talent in the early rounds. I am prejudiced by our very poor record at selecting good WR talent in the early rounds since the re-birth. Albeit those choices were made by previous GMs and their lack of success can also be attributed to a lack of QB talent. However I’m old enough to have been a long time Browns fan before the relocation. Warfield and Slaughter are the only early rounds WRs that I remember panning out.


Some teams seem to be star crossed to always find certain positions (ex.Colts & Packers w/ QBs). Other teams seem to be forever trying to find a player to fill a position. It seems that we’ve always had better luck finding Y & Z receivers in the bargain rounds. Warfield is the only true X we’ve had except for the false promise of Josh Gordon.


In summary this could be the most enjoyable off season we’ve had in 30+ years. A promising young franchise QB, a young roster with talent at every position, a plethora of draft choices, abundant salary cap, an energetic/innovative new HC, a skilled GM backed by strong analytics and scouting groups and a very manageable schedule all portend for further growth, success and maybe even a playoff run. The best fanbase in the NFL is finally going to get a run of success that they have earned with steadfast loyalty despite some of the worst leadership in the history of the league.



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