FanPost

Are we going to be disappointed again?

Twenty years of ineptitude has negatively affected me as a Browns fan. The first thirty years had occasional down seasons but, were dominated by competent and often dominant teams. That led to every pre-season being filled with optimism and hope. In recent years I wonder how they will disappoint. So as we approach 2019 with an unrivaled amount of optimism and hype I can’t entirely shake my fear of failure.


In order to deal with the fear I’ve tried to enumerate my concerns below:


First so much of our current optimism is based on the 14 games Baker Mayfield played last year. Rookies have flashed many times in the past and then disappeared in short order. Will the Browns luck of the past repeat with Mayfield?


Counter argument: I’m very confident that Baker is the real thing. His personality, college record and his 2018 season don’t show any indicators that he was a one year wonder. I wasn’t fooled by Anderson’s 2007 season, Quinn’s performances or Manziel’s college work. I never believed that Garcia, Holcomb,Delaholm or Griffin were the answer and I thought an expansion team drafting a QB at number 1 was ridiculous. So far I’ve always been right and I think that I am with Mayfield as well.


Second the strong record at the end of 2018 was misleading. Four of the wins were against teams crippled with injuries (Cincinnati x2, Carolina & Atlanta) and the fifth was a close game we won due to the Broncos HC making a Hue-ge mistake late in the game.


Counter argument: The final game against the Ravens was very encouraging. Playing a game that meant everything to the Ravens and little to the Browns they were dominated in the first half and without a great play by Ogunjobi (and subsequent horrible call by the officials) the game would have been out of reach. In the second half the defense stopped the Ravens and Baker led the team back such that without a nice play by Mosely the Browns would have been positioned to kick a winning field goal and end the Ravens season.


Third the team is very young and has few veterans with experience on playoff teams. Do they know how to play down the stretch and late in games to persevere as much through their own confidence as through their talent? Teams generally need to grow a winning attitude through a couple of seasons.


Counter argument: I really do not have one!


Fourth I would dearly want to avoid doing 2003 or 2008 again as a brief season of success is followed by deterioration. I’m worried that the Browns have pushed too many resources onto the table this year. We currently have about $30M in cap space and are projected to have $20M in 2020. With the young players that will be in line for extensions over the next few years we need more cap space. As much as I’m excited to see OBJ in our offense I’m worried that the $15.2M in cap space lost in the move hurts (took on Beckham & Burnett and gave away Peppers, #17 and #95).


Counter argument: While we currently project without a LT, MLB & FS in 2020 the rest of the roster should be solid. If Forbes, Takitaki, Wilson, Redwine and Avery develop we might be fine. There are also scenarios for the 2019 roster that could save $10 to $14M. In the worst case the salaries for some of the current starters are structured so that cap space could be collected with renegotiated contracts and releases.


Fifth is the defense going to be able to stop the run this year? They were terrible last year. This year we will have to stop the Ravens, Steelers, Cincinnati, New England, Buffalo, Jets, 49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Titans and Broncos who all had good rushing attacks last year. In addition the Ravens, Bills, Jets, Seahawks, Cardinals and Titans all have QBs that run often and well. Finally with the offense expected to be potent teams will want to control time of possession.


Counter argument: Ogunjobi’s injury should be healed, Kirksey will be back, Richardson will be an improvement and the DT depth should be better. In addition if the offense performs as expected teams will be forced to play catch up, reducing the effect of a rushing attack.


Finally will the offensive line perform like the first half or the second half of 2018? Replacing Zietler will be a task. Neither Robinson or Hubbard have been exceptional OTs. Tretter struggled with an injury last year and has a history of injuries.


Counter argument: Dorsey has loaded up multiple possible alternatives. Kush, Kalis, Witzman & Lamm are all experienced NFL players with some starting experience. Forbes and Corbett are young players with potential. Fineanganofo and Wright are raw UDFAs with excellent workout numbers. He did the same last year for the LT position and although the first 3 options didn’t work out eventually Robinson did a credible job. In addition Freddie’s play calling and Mayfield’s accuracy and release really helped the OL in 2018 and should be at least as impactful in 2019.


On balance I’m certainly the most optimistic that I’ve been in years. The first half of the schedule looks challenging. I think that both the Steelers and Ravens have been diminished by defections and age. The Bengals are more talented than most believe but they have limited depth, an inexperienced coaching staff and a competent albeit limited QB. The Browns don’t have any obvious weaknesses and with the exception of QB can probably withstand most injuries for a few games. I can see us getting 8 to 10 wins this year and maybe a playoff appearance.


We might be entering a 4 to 6 year period of sustained good performance. Maybe even a Super Bowl? Being a Browns fan has always inspired hopeful optimism.



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