The Cleveland Browns plan to have QB Jacoby Brissett for one more start before he gives way to Deshaun Watson. Brissett was signed to a cheap, one-year deal this offseason with the expectation that he would hold down the fort during Watson’s suspension. That turned out to be 11 games with this week’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be his final.
Before we get into the positives, a few things to recognize (because the comments here and on social media make sure to point them out on almost all positive posts):
- Yes, the Browns are 3-7
- Yes, Joe Woods’ defense has been very bad most of the year
- Yes, Mike Priefer has coordinated a bad special teams
- Yes, the team is too talented to have lost seven games
- Yes, Cleveland blew a number of games early in the season that could have changed everything
With all that said, Brissett’s season has been impressive given his salary and expectations. His raw stats are fine: 2,398 yards, 64% completion, 11 TDs, 5 INTs and a 90.7 QB rating. His ability to scramble for key yardage and get the proper yardage on QB sneaks (except in Week 11) has been huge.
Brissett also leads the league in Completion Percentage Over Expectation:
Dak Prescott has completed +10.0% of his passes over expected since returning from injury in Week 7, trailing only Jacoby Brissett (+10.1%).— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 25, 2022
: The rest of the top 5 pic.twitter.com/MqhEqkOqig
CPOE takes a lot into account:
Yards to go
Distance to sticks (air yards – yards to go)
Whether possession team is at home
Whether the game is played indoors
Era, broken down into 2006-2013, 2014-2017, 2018 and beyond
Pass location (binary: middle or not middle)
Whether quarterback was hit on the play
At a simplified level, CPOE looks at a player’s expected completion percentage (calculated by the above variables) and their actual percentage (64%).
Based on the data above, Brissett is expected to complete just 53.2% of his passes. Dak Prescott, used as the example in the above graphic, has completed 68.1% of his passes but was expected to complete just 58.1% of those.
Brissett has been far from perfect but has made the most of what opportunities he’s had. This week, against Brady and the Bucs, he has one more chance to cement his legacy for this season. It will be interesting if another team signs him to be their bridge starter next year.