Weather is surely going to be a factor when the New Orleans Saints visit the Cleveland Browns this Saturday. It’s going to be cold, and unusually windy with a chance of snow. How much of an effect will it have on the game? Oddsmakers are predicting a historically low-scoring game for this reason among a few others.
The Browns opened as 3.5-point favorites over the Saints with the over/under set at 35 total points scored in the game. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to Browns -2.5 and an O/U of 32.5 on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Some sportsbooks have seen the O/U as low as 31.5 already. Just how obscure are these odds?
According to The Action Network, If the line for the Browns vs Saints game closes at 31.5 it would be the lowest since 2008 in a contest between the Browns and the Bengals. The next lowest total since then would be a 32.5 O/U in a Colts/Bills game in 2009.
The Action Network also pointed out that over the past 20 years only 16 games have been played with 25+ MPH winds and only 2 games also had temperatures below 20 degrees. The high temperature right now is predicted to be just 13 degrees in Cleveland for game day with wind gusts of over 50 MPH.
The two games in which games were played in 25+ MPH winds with temperatures below 20 degrees just so happened to have also been played in Cleveland. These two games were played in 2008 and 2009. One was the aforementioned Browns vs. Bengals game when Cleveland lost 14-0. The other was when the Steelers visited Cleveland in 2009 and fell to the Browns 13-6.
Another reason the lines are trending toward historical lows is the Browns and Saints past few games. The Saints have gone under in the past three games and the Browns have gone under in four straight.
It will be fascinating to see where the line ends up at game time this Saturday. Will you be taking the over or the under on Christmas Eve?