FanPost

How well do the pundits predict the draft?


I’ve taken advantage of several free sites to collect their big board listings. I collected the top 100 players from each site and then attempted to see how much consensus there is for the top 65 players. As I’ve done in past seasons the question that I’m trying to answer is how well do the media pundits predict the players who will be drafted in the first two rounds.


I’ve collected the players into four categories. "Clear and strong consensus" are the players who have been universally graded in all of the surveyed sites as top 32 players. "Very close consensus" are the players with clear consensus as top 65 players. "Close consensus" are players are generally rated as top 65 players but with some dissenting opinions. "General consensus" are players without complete placement but have been generally placed within the top 65, This year I also included the group that most nearly made the top 65.


As in past years I’ve listed the players alphabetically within each category as I don’t intend this exercise to be a mock draft. It should be obvious to everyone that rating and draft position is not an absolute predictor of success in the NFL. We would expect the media to be wrong on a lot of the players but, the NFL teams success rate in most drafts isn’t exceptional either.


If the past is an indication of the future we should see most of the first 50 draft choices on this list. The next 15 draft choices will at best have half of the choices from the list of 65.


This year did have a much greater variance in opinion than in previous years. Perrion Winfrey of Oklahoma is an extreme example with 1 opinion in the top half of the first round, 2 opinions early in the second round, 2 opinions late in the second and 3 opinions late in the third round. Travis Jones and Daxton Hill had similar if less extreme variances.


My perception is that although the highly desired QBs aren’t available in this draft there is the normal amount of high floor prospects and a greater than normal number of prospects that would normally be selected on day two. I suspect that there will be some very promising players available into the fifth round.


Clear and strong consensus


Gardner, Ahmad

Cincinnati

CB

Stingley,Derek Jr

LSU

CB

Davis, Jordan

Georgia

DL

Walker, Travon

Georgia

DL/DE

Hutchinson, Aidan

Michigan

Edge

Johnson, Jermaine II

Florida State

Edge

Karlaftis, George

Purdue

Edge

Thibodeaux, Kayvon

Oregon

Edge

Dean, Nakobe

Georgia

LB

Lloyd, Devin

Utah

LB

Linderbaum, Tyler

Iowa

OL

Hamilton, Kyle

Notre Dame

S

Cross, Charles

Mississippi State

T

Ekwonu, Ikem

NCSU

T

Neal, Evan

Alabama

T

Penning, Trevor

N. Iowa

T

Burks, Treylon

Arkansas

WR

London, Drake

UCLA

WR

Olave, Chris

Ohio State

WR

Williams, Jameson

Alabama

WR

Wilson, Garrett

Ohio State

WR


Very close consensus


Booth, Andrew Jr

Clemson

CB

Elam, Kaiir

Florida

CB

Gordon, Kyler

Washington

CB

McCreary, Roger

Auburn

CB

McDuffy, Trent

Washington

CB

Leal, Demarvin

Texas A&M

DL

Wyatt, Devonte

Georgia

DL

Ebiketie, Arnold

Penn State

Edge

Mafe, Boye

Minnesota

Edge

Ojabo, David

Michigan

Edge

Harris, Christian

Alabama

LB

Muma, Chad

Wyoming

LB

Green, Kenyon

Texas A&M

OL

Johnson, Zion

Boston College

OL

Corral, Matt

Ole Miss

QB

Howell, Sam

North Carolina

QB

Pickett, Kenny

Pittsburgh

QB

Ridder, Desmond

Cincinnati

QB

Willis, Malik

Liberty

QB

Walker, Kenneth II

Michigan St

RB

Brisker, Jaquan

Penn State

S

Cine, Lewis

Georgia

S

Hill, Daxton

Michigan

S

Pitre, Jalen

Baylor

S

Raimann, Bernhard

C. Michigan

T

Dotson, Jahan

Penn State

WR

Watson, Christian

NDSU

WR


Close consensus


Hall, Logan

Houston

DL

Jones, Travis

UConn

DL

Winfrey, Perrion

Oklahoma

DL

Enagbare, Kingsley

South Carolina

Edge

Jackson, Drake

USC

Edge

Faalele, Daniel

Minnesota

OL

Smith, Tyler

Tulsa

OL

Hall, Breece

Iowa State

RB

Spiller, Isaiah

Texas A&M

RB

Kinnard, Darian

Kentucky

T

McBride, Trey

Colorado State

TE

Moore, Skyy

W. Michigan

WR

Pickens, George

Georgia

WR


General Consensus


Woolen, Tariq

UTSA

DB

Chenal, Leo

Wisconsin

LB

Walker, Quay

Georgia

LB

Parham, Dylan

Memphis

OL

Petit-Frere, Nicholas

Ohio State

T


Nearest to miss Consensus

Mathis, Phidarian

Alabama

DL

Bonitto, Nik

Oklahoma

Edge

Thomas, Cameron

San Diego State

Edge

Tindall, Channing

Georgia

LB

Salyer, Jamaree

Georgia

OL

Strange, Cole

Chattanooga

OL

Rhyan, Sean

UCLA

T

Dulcich, Greg

UCLA

TE

Bell, David

Purdue

WR

Metchie, John III

Alabama

WR

Shakir, Khalil

Boise State

WR

Tolbert, Jalen

S. Alabama

WR

Pierce, Alec

Cincinnati

WR

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