I’ve taken advantage of several free sites to collect their big board listings. I collected the top 100 players from each site and then attempted to see how much consensus there is for the top 65 players. As I’ve done in past seasons the question that I’m trying to answer is how well do the media pundits predict the players who will be drafted in the first two rounds.
I’ve collected the players into four categories. "Clear and strong consensus" are the players who have been universally graded in all of the surveyed sites as top 32 players. "Very close consensus" are the players with clear consensus as top 65 players. "Close consensus" are players are generally rated as top 65 players but with some dissenting opinions. "General consensus" are players without complete placement but have been generally placed within the top 65, This year I also included the group that most nearly made the top 65.
As in past years I’ve listed the players alphabetically within each category as I don’t intend this exercise to be a mock draft. It should be obvious to everyone that rating and draft position is not an absolute predictor of success in the NFL. We would expect the media to be wrong on a lot of the players but, the NFL teams success rate in most drafts isn’t exceptional either.
If the past is an indication of the future we should see most of the first 50 draft choices on this list. The next 15 draft choices will at best have half of the choices from the list of 65.
This year did have a much greater variance in opinion than in previous years. Perrion Winfrey of Oklahoma is an extreme example with 1 opinion in the top half of the first round, 2 opinions early in the second round, 2 opinions late in the second and 3 opinions late in the third round. Travis Jones and Daxton Hill had similar if less extreme variances.
My perception is that although the highly desired QBs aren’t available in this draft there is the normal amount of high floor prospects and a greater than normal number of prospects that would normally be selected on day two. I suspect that there will be some very promising players available into the fifth round.
Clear and strong consensus
Very close consensus
Nearest to miss Consensus