We will be doing a live blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs playoff game, so refresh often for the latest. The game kicks off at 4:30 PM ET on NBC. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs are 91⁄2 point favorites with an over/under of 52.
4th Quarter Updates
7:33 PM: Well, the end of that game was still meaningful to bettors! Jacksonville got a field goal with 0:25 left, but couldn’t get the onside kick. The 27-20 finish means the Jaguars covered the spread, though. Kansas City is on to the AFC Championship.
7:20 PM: Agnew sparked the Jaguars again with a 42-yard kickoff return, and they were driving to the goal line — but then Agnew gave it away, fumbling on a catch with about five minutes to go. The Jaguars came up with a defensive stop, but then Lawrence threw an interception. With 3:48 to go and Jacksonville out of timeouts, it’s looking like a KC win, and they are poised to cover the +9.5 point spread too.
7:00 PM: The Chiefs responded with a big touchdown drive, as Mahomes finished the drive with a left foot jump pass to WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling from 6 yards out to make it a 27-17 game, which was the same score when these teams met in the regular season. With only 7:09 remaining, the Jaguars need to score quick. It was huge that the Chiefs got the touchdown there, because holding them to a field goal would’ve set up a very different tone to close out this game.
MVS but the S stands for SCOOORE!!! pic.twitter.com/APKHHtKOWQ— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 22, 2023
6:49 PM: Bang! After being dormant the whole third quarter, Jacksonville had a burst to start the fourth quarter. 12 yards to WR Zay Jones, an 11-yard scramble by Lawrence, Etienne for a 6-yard run, and then a 37-yard pass to an open Jones. Some trickery on an end around to Kirk went for 18 yards, and then Etienne scored from 4 yards out. Just like that, it’s a 20-17 game with 11:49 to go.
6:42 PM: Welp, the Jaguars tried to look for a pass on the last play of the third quarter, and it led to Lawrence basically getting beheaded by a defensive tackle for an 8-yard sack. It’ll be 2nd-and-18 to start the fourth quarter.
3rd Quarter Updates
6:38 PM: The Chiefs set up a 50-yard field goal again, and it was good to make it a 20-10 game with a few seconds left in the third quarter. Jacksonville is still within striking range, but they have to score on this upcoming drive to stay in it.
6:30 PM: Unfortunately, the Jaguars’ offense hasn’t responded well in this third quarter. Lawrence tried to find Kirk on a third-and-long, and the play was open, but the timing was thrown off when his received slipped twice. We’re almost finished with the third quarter and Lawrence doesn’t have over 100 yards passing yet. Jacksonville still needs a balanced attack, but they need to find a way to attack downfield more when they do throw.
6:26 PM: Wow, what a turn of events on that last drive — Pacheco caught a pass and appeared to get a first down, but was marked just short for a 3rd-and-1. The Chiefs challenged, and didn’t win the challenge. Then, Kansas City tried a sneak with a motion man, and he was stopped for no gain, forcing a punt. Jacksonville takes over at the 11 yard line, with 6:08 left in the third quarter.
6:17 PM: Etienne was running the ball well, but he needed a breather and then on a 2nd-and-7, the Jaguars’ offensive line had a breakdown, forgetting to block the defensive tackle who drilled Lawrence almost right after he took the snap (incomplete pass). The heat came on third down too, and now Jacksonville has punted back to Kansas City.
6:10 PM: Kansas City just punted for the first time. Mahomes threw for one first down, but then a couple of incomplete passes on second and third down led to a punt. Jacksonville takes over at the 15-yard line. They need to keep their offensive momentum going.
6:05 PM: We’re back, and so is Mahomes. The Chiefs get the ball to open the third quarter.
2nd Quarter Updates
5:46 PM: Lawrence comes back with a 15-yard laser to Kirk, followed by a 7-yard completion to Kirk again. They’re in field goal range now, and that’s what they eventually got: a 41-yarder to cut it to 17-10 with 0:27 left. The Chiefs aren’t going to push anything with Henne, especially when they get the ball to begin the second half, so we’ll go to halftime.
5:39 PM: Ouch, heading into the two-minute warning, Lawrence through a bomb for Kirk that was right on the money, but he couldn’t haul in the diving catch. That would’ve gone for about 60 yards and put the Jaguars in scoring range. Now, they face a third down at their own 40 yard line at the two-minute warning.
5:33 PM: Now it’s time for Pacheco to show off! I didn’t realize he was that fast, as he had a burst of 29 yards before a 3-yard run that set them up at the 1 yard line. From there, Henne tossed it to Kelce for the touchdown, putting Kansas City up 17-7 with 3:54 to go in the half.
5:28 PM: Kansas City is trying to go with the quick hitter passes, while mixing in the ground game. It’s worked to burn some clock and pick up a few first downs, and now after a third down conversion with a roughing the passer mixed in, the Chiefs are past midfield. Also, Mahomes is questionable to return.
5:20 PM: The Jaguars were driving well, looking to strike back, but then a 15-yard tripping penalty and a sack killed the drive. Jacksonville punted the ball down to the two-yard line, but then after the timeout, the surprise was that QB Chad Henne was under center for Kansas City. Stay tuned!
5:08 PM: The Chiefs came away with a 50-yard field goal to take a 10-7 lead. On third down, Mahomes pulled the ball down and lost the handle, throwing it into the ground; if he would’ve actually tried to squeeze the pass in, it could’ve been intercepted.
Jacksonville has to feel good after that drive, knowing that Mahomes could be limited with his mobility now, and they held KC to a field goal. When the Browns had to face Chad Henne in the 2020 playoffs, it breathed life into Cleveland, and they really should’ve been able to rally and win that game.
5:04 PM: Here is the video of the injury. He got it heavily taped, and was less gimpy coming back to the field to open the quarter. It all depends on the severity and high vs. low ankle sprain. I sprained my ankle in basketball last week for the first time in 6+ years, and I couldn’t put weight on it for a few minutes. Later I could walk on it, but with pain and then the bruising started the next day.
Defender lands on MaHomes ankle from the outside, pushing it inward. Classic high ankle sprain mechanism, also we see a notable valgus (knee caving in) which could implicate MCL. It’s his right leg, so his push off leg to create throw power. One to monitor #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/QbM4tuYkgV— Tom Christ, PT, DPT, OCS, FAAOMPT (@FantasyInjuryT) January 21, 2023
1st Quarter Updates
5:02 PM: The big development as the first quarter comes to an end if that Mahomes’ ankle is hurt, and it’ll no doubt affect his mobility for a bit — he’s going to get it taped up on the bench during the break.
4:54 PM: What a response! Jacksonville struck quick and did incorporate the ground game this time, with RB Travis Etienne having a 19-yard burst. On 2nd-and-9 from the 10 yard line, head coach Doug Pederson got creative for the second week in a row, lining WR Christian Kirk up in the backfield with Lawrence in Shotgun. Kirk simply ran the wheel route to the end zone, and Lawrence found him in the mismatch for the touchdown to tie things up at 7-7 with 5:04 remaining in the first quarter. The kickoff return by Agnew no doubt helped even the game up, though.
4:50 PM: People who picked Kelce to catch a touchdown and have a big day betting-wise are off to a nice start. On the ensuing kickoff, returner Jamal Agnew just took it back 67 yards to the Chiefs’ 39 yard line, half-way through the opening quarter.
4:46 PM: The Chiefs take the early 7-0 lead, as Mahomes connects with TE Travis Kelce on a little dumpoff, and then he rumbled in for the 8-yard touchdown. I know it’s hard to match up with all of Kansas City’s weapons because of Mahomes, but the defense dropped Kelce in coverage — he’s the one guy you have to glue to always, right?
4:42 PM: Jacksonville came out trying to throw the ball on all three downs; I thought they’d try to take a slower approach with the ground game. They punted, and now Patrick Mahomes is doing his unique style of razzle dazzle with jump passes and such to move the ball downfield. Currently goal-to-go for KC.
4:32 PM: The Jaguars are getting the opening kickoff. There was snow earlier, but it’s faded to a very light rain — it doesn’t look like weather will be too much of a factor.
4:30 PM: Here we go! The Jaguars are no doubt underdogs, but with them winning six straight games, including last week’s stunning comeback against the Chiefs, you can’t count them out. They have proven they aren’t a pushover, and are just a game away from the AFC Championship.
4:25 PM: I did a five-game parlay, combining this weekend’s four playoff games with the Cavaliers game later tonight. I bet the home favorite in every game with the spread, except for the Chiefs-Jaguars game — the 91⁄2 line just seems too much to push, but I also didn’t want to take the Jaguars in the spread, given the large deficit they faced against the Chargers a week ago.
There’s also a 10-game parlay that I did just for the Jaguars-Chiefs game, involving a lot of little things (including the Jaguars’ running back having 5+ receiving yards, for example). I know parlays are shots in the dark, but at $10 a clip, you could try these parlays a bunch of times and if you hit one of them, you’ve made your money back. It’s all about betting responsibly, right?
4:20 PM: Good afternoon, Browns fans and NFL fans! I am going to try live blogging the first playoff game as an experiment of sorts to kick off Divisional Weekend. Here is my prediction from earlier:
The Jaguars’ comeback last week was quite remarkable, after Trevor Lawrence had thrown four interceptions. Combined with their winning streak to end the season, Jacksonville is a dangerous team right now because not only are they rolling in unconventional ways, they have the fearless factor going for them too.
The Chiefs won the regular season match-up 27-17 against the Jaguars. First round byes are less important these days it seems, and even if Kansas City wins this week, they aren’t guaranteed a home game next week. The Chiefs only lost three games this year, two of which came against Buffalo and Cincinnati, which is problematic since they face off in the next round. I’ll still take Patrick Mahomes to have his way with the Jaguars’ defense, though — and even though Jacksonville has been rolling, it’ll be hard for them to shoot out a team back-to-back. Chiefs 28, Jaguars 20.
You can also see that the entire DBN staff is taking the Chiefs to win: