Who we like in Chiefs-Eagles matchup to win this year’s Super Bowl

Super Bowl LVII takes place this Sunday, February 12, at 6:30 PM ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The game will air on FOX.

My preview and prediction are below, followed by the rest of our staff picks. Also, don’t forget to check out all the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, which have the Eagles favored by 1.5 points and the over/under at 51.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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The Kansas City Chiefs have been a regular favorite to make it to the Super Bowl out of the AFC since Patrick Mahomes became their starting quarterback in 2018. His track record includes a Super Bowl win in 2019 over the 49ers, a Super Bowl loss in 2020 to the Buccaneers, and then an AFC Championship loss to the Bengals last year.

This year, the Chiefs are back for their third trip in four years, looking to go 2-1. There often seem to be those dynasty type of teams — like the Patriots when I was growing up, and now the Chiefs — who can make it to the big game year-in, and year-out. Meanwhile, no Browns fan has ever been able to experience a single Super Bowl game involving Cleveland (although we did have plenty of Championship games back in the day).

We saw last year’s Super Bowl winner, the Los Angeles Rams, dismantle much of their team this past offseason, and the result was a lackluster 5-12 season that only generated a little bit of late-season buzz because of Baker Mayfield of all people. The Chiefs, meanwhile, had quite a few big changes themselves with the trading of top receiving threat Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, and not re-signing a bunch of key free agents like safety Tyrann Mathieu. They had an incredible success rate and level of contribution from their rookies, though, making the roster turnover a virtual non-factor when it came to wins and losses:

Mahomes had another stellar season, throwing for a career-high 5,250 yards, to go along with 41 touchdown passes en route to the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Travis Kelce was also at the top of his game, finishing the regular season with 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns, all of which were career highs. In the two playoff games, he has 21 catches for 176 yards and 3 touchdowns. Mahomes also managed to escape with a win on an injured ankle against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship. Having just come off an ankle injury myself around the same timeline as Mahomes, this two-week rest period was key for him and he should have no limitations.

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The Philadelphia Eagles are back in the Super Bowl for the first time since 2017, when Nick Foles made a name for himself by stunning the New England Patriots in a shootout. The Eagles have had several postseason appearances since then, but have mostly been eliminated in the first round. Such was the case last season, when Jalen Hurts made his first postseason appearance against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay destroyed them, leading 31-0 heading into the final quarter.

The light switched on for the Eagles this season, though, to where they dominated as the top team in football the entire season. Hurts had a very impressive season, throwing for 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns (to 6 interceptions) in 15 games, while also running for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns. Although Mahomes won the league’s Most Valuable Player award, some more consideration should have been thrown Hurts’ way. The Eagles were 14-1 in the regular season with Hurts under center, and 0-2 when he was absent.

The Eagles have the No. 3 offense in the NFL in terms of yardage. Their success is different from the Chiefs in the sense that they are built on the threat of the run, while Kansas City is more content to air it out — although Philadelphia is perfectly capable through the air too; this is not like the Baltimore Ravens being one-dimensional. The Eagles rank No. 2 in overall defense and No. 1 in pass defense, allowing an average of just 179.8 yards through the air per game. They also have the highest sack rate in the NFL at an incredible 12.59%.

Even though the Eagles did not face the best of quarterback situations over the past two weeks, their defense deserves a ton of credit for holding the Giants and 49ers to 7 points each — beating the Giants 38-7, and the 49ers 31-7. Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson are one thing; Patrick Mahomes is the damn MVP of the NFL. If anyone can overcome a defense, it should be him, right? The point here is that it should be a mixed game — Mahomes will get his shots in, but so will the Eagles’ defense. Philadelphia’s formula to winning is tough to overcome, and although I was originally leaning toward the Chiefs (and had picked the 49ers in the NFC Championship game), I’ve shifted my pick to the Eagles. Eagles 23, Chiefs 20.

Staff Predictions

Jared Mueller: “A very interesting Super Bowl matchup, the elite offense that Kansas City has versus the more well-rounded team that Philadelphia brings to the desert should be a fun one. While it is hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, the talent on both sides of the ball for the Eagles has more ways to win the game than the Chiefs do. Whether it is a special teams play, a defensive stop or just grinding the clock with their running game, Philadelphia brings home another Super Bowl trophy.” Eagles 31, Chiefs 28.

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Thomas Moore: “This is a tough game to pick, which should result in it being an entertaining Super Bowl. On one side, it’s hard to pick against Patrick Mahomes, but his bum ankle is going to be an issue against Philadelphia’s pass rush. On the other side, Jalen Hurts is the truth, but he has only thrown 22 passes this season when the Eagles are trailing, so how will he hold up to the pressure?

Then there are the head coaches. Kansas City’s Andy Reid has the clear edge in experience, especially when it comes to handling all the outside noise that goes along with a Super Bowl. But doubting Nick Sirianni seems like a sure path to disappointment given how well he has guided the Eagles this year. Plus Reid is a tidy 3-0 against the Eagles since taking over as head coach in Kansas City.

The Chiefs had a harder path to get to the Super Bowl out of the AFC, but the Eagles have the better defense and their offense may actually be a bit underrated.

Both teams are deserving and while it might be risky to bet on Mahomes because of his ankle, he is the MVP for a reason.” Chiefs 31, Eagles 28.

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Ezweav: “It’s been hard for me to get a great feel for this contest from the moment it materialized. If the Eagles handle Kansas City as they have most of the league to this point, we’re looking at one of the most dominating seasons in history. That just seems like too much too soon.

Chiefs clearly have the edge at QB even though Jalen Hurts has been lights out. Nick Siriani has been unbelievable but Andy Reid is an incredibly tough out in his own right. Worth point out his ridiculous record in games where he’s had more than a week to prepare (27-4).

Chiefs also have a keen memory of getting boat-raced by the Buccaneers just two years ago in this game. I wouldn’t expect them to let that happen a second time. Not by much, but gimme Mahomey.” Chiefs 32, Eagles 30.

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Matt Wood: “Best player vs best team. That’s how I see this game. Mahomes was the MVP because he is the best player we have in the game. But the Eagles have the better offensive line. The better defensive line (granted Chris Jones is the best lineman in this game). The better wide receivers. Sense a pattern?

The last time the Chiefs went into a Super Bowl against a team much better than them in the trenches, the Buccaneers whooped them. I see this Super Bowl following a similar pattern especially if Mahomes is limited with the ankle. Eagles ride a dominate game at the line of scrimmage and take it all home.” Eagles 30, Chiefs 16.

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Below is a summary of our Super Bowl 2023 staff picks: